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Ordinarily, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year award adheres to a simple formula. It often acts as a kind of mea culpa. Sorry we misjudged your squad in our pre-campaign forecasts.

In theory, it's a direct line: the skipper who oversaw the most dramatic improvement receives the prize. In practice, it creates an yearly debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly rewarding superior leadership or merely the most shocking shock.

Yet this year's field is fundamentally unique. The list of candidates is unusually strong. It has been the year of resurgences. The NFL has been chaotic, with reigning division winners declining and recent underperformers improving collectively. Under an typical season, Sean Payton leading the his team to the summit of the conference would make him the clear favorite. Yet in such a wild and fun season, he's competing with several other elite candidates.

Below is how the ideal vote should look.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors love QBs. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you transform a franchise QB, you're halfway home.

Ben Johnson not only fixed Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. Within an ideal ecosystem, the QB has been afforded the opportunity to display his otherworldly ability. From Week 9, the Chicago offense sit at fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a brief surge – it's sustained performance. With Johnson, the quarterback has become increasingly decisive, far less careless, and has willingly submitted to the scheme rather than freelancing. It is an offense constructed solely in Johnson's image: a bully-ball run game, a consistent dose of play-action and a innovative passing attack that frees wide receiver receivers consistently. The QB has capitalized. And when clear throws haven't been available, he's been capable to conjure magic from nothing.

The coach arrived to Chicago with a specific offensive philosophy. Virtually each bet – rebuilding the trenches, highlighting the tight ends, turning the QB into a rhythm thrower – has worked. That's uncommon for a first-year head coach. And it's rarer yet for a leader who walked into the organization with the kind of expectations Johnson did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the hottest candidate on the coaching carousel. But when it comes to hiring a leader, there are no guarantees. Remarkably, Johnson has met expectations – and even exceeded them. He's proven not only to be a scheme genius but the kind of leader that can breathe fresh energy into an franchise.

During a typical year, he would be the clear-cut choice. Yet the current isn't a normal season!

The area where Johnson's case comes a bit unstuck is on the defensive side. The Bears presently rank 25th in defensive efficiency. They are relying on takeaways, and turnovers are notoriously inconsistent. Defensive minds can focus on creating turnovers, but no one can ensure it. Johnson is on the list because the offense is sustainable. He's ranked lower because variance is doing an outsized share of the defense's work. With a few bounces of the ball, the team would be two wins behind. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the foundation is established for long-term success. However he comes up short here.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar situation to his counterpart. He's a fellow rookie head coach who has engineered a rapid resurgence. Over the stretch run of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best overall football of his career. And he's also overseen the transformation of a defensive unit that now ranks number five in the NFL in EPA per play.

Even more impressively, Coen has mastered the leadership stuff, which was not a guarantee after his initial public introduction and some of his preseason decisions.

Coen walked into the Jaguars with an uncommonly inexperienced coaching staff. In contrast to Johnson, who surrounded themselves with the ideal staff blend of youth and veteran savvy, he hired first-timers. Starting with the leader himself to assistants to position coaches, the Jaguars are filled with rookies. That type of approach is exciting in theory, but often collapses in practice – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everybody is learning a new job on the fly. Yet he has managed to bring everyone and all elements into sync.

After an early strong start, there was a risk that the season would go off the track. A mid-year collapse caused the team wobbling once more. That's usually when coaches overcorrect. Coen did not. Instead, he simplified the approach. Jacksonville stopped pursuing explosive answers and started hunting consistent ones. Coen refocused the attack around key players and the ground attack, and encouraged Lawrence to use his legs more often.

The outcomes are evident. The Jags have won multiple games consecutively and will be the conference's number three seed. He receives the tiniest knock in the rankings because he inherited a talented roster, but he has proven he can maximize that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, Their Record

Each Strong of the Year argument has a pivotal decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback decision.

Moving on from a veteran, signing a different signal-caller and pairing him with an new play-caller could have derailed the season in October. Rather, it defined it. Through the middle point of the season, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has regressed after that hot streak, dropping to a lower rank in efficiency per dropback over the second half of the schedule, putting him just a single spot ahead of peers.

Still