Ten years after the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that split the country and triggered turmoil, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."
New Title Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have studied the political, financial and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue such a time is looming, and a group called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists play down the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there could be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has hidden the shortage of serious debate, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in academia but very few elected officials or advocates are willing to participate with even the basics. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unification or the current situation. They writes two essays that strive for objectivity in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling economic and societal data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, levies, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens report they favour unity but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, legitimate points, he commented. "One side will succeed in this matter and the other side will in the end be defeated but each side has has valuable insights to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the debate, urged the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."
