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Increasing apprehensions are present about the chance of armed conflict among Horn of Africa countries, the Ethiopian government and the Eritrean government, as hostile rhetoric has intensified in the past few weeks.

What Has Ethiopia Declared?

Ethiopia's, being landlocked, demands for passage to the Red Sea through Eritrea has sparked a fierce war of words.

Ethiopian Prime Minister initially stated publicly in last year that his government's access to the sea was an existential matter, comments that Eritrea ignored.

Diplomatic connections between the both governments have often been tense. Following a long-standing battle for independence, the Eritrean state, which has a long maritime frontage, officially seceded from Ethiopia in the early 1990s, leaving it landlocked.

In 1998, a territorial conflict erupted in which over a hundred thousand people lost their lives.

Recent Remarks from Ethiopia's Government

Abiy and army chief the army commander have directly stated sovereignty of Eritrea's coastal city of Assab – about 60km from the border - and suggested the wish to seize it militarily.

Recently, the Prime Minister said Ethiopia's "mistake" of losing entry to the sea as a because of Eritrea secession would be "corrected in the future".

The Ethiopian envoy to neighboring Kenya, former General Bacha Debele, said that Assab was "Ethiopian property" and would be restored "by force".

Eritrea's Response to the Claims

Amid ongoing challenges from Ethiopian officials, Asmara's position has been confined to brief comments on X from Communications Head Yemane Gebremeskel.

He has rejected Ethiopia's demand for access to the Red Sea labeling it "risky" and a "toxic agenda" of "expansionism" – a policy of claiming back lost territory.

The information ministry cautioned on recently that efforts to legitimise "flagrant aggression" would have major implications for the Ethiopian government and its neighbouring countries and is a "boundary that should not be crossed|violated|breached".

Military Activities on the Ground

Currently, there are few indications of significant troop deployments in the frontier regions between the both nations.

However, in Ethiopia, government media has displayed training completions of numerous trainees at different defense facilities.

The leader of personnel division of the armed forces, General Hachalu, commented lately in an interview that the defense forces was in a "reliable position" as "many thousands of youths" were enlisting, which he said was "a message to our adversaries".

Past Background of the Tension

For more than half a century from 1890, the territory was governed by Italian colonisers.

After World War II, it was then managed by the British administration before turning into a associated territory of the Ethiopian empire.

However in the early 1960s the ruler terminated this system and Eritrea became totally absorbed into the Ethiopian state.

A thirty-year internal conflict occurred, finishing with the government's loss in 1991. Independence was then endorsed by voters in a referendum in 1993.

Temporarily in the 1990s, there were friendly connections between the governments in Addis Ababa and Eritrea's capital, but they fell out over the specific demarcation of their mutual frontier, leading to conflict in 1998.

Although this finished in a truce in 2000, it was incompletely executed, and the both countries remained at loggerheads.

This ended in 2018, when the Prime Minister made overtures to Eritrea's leader Isaias Afwerki. The two signed a statement that the conflict was concluded – a action that earned the Prime Minister the Nobel Peace Prize.

The neighboring states were then cooperators in Ethiopia's 2020-2022 internal conflict in Tigray.

Yet diplomatic connections have later worsened anew.